Maersk Asia Pacific Market Update - January, 2025

Beyond the Horizon: Asia-Pacific Supply Chain Trends & Insights

Regional insights and latest information to keep your cargo moving.

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As we step into 2025, we extend our warmest New Year wishes to our valued partners and colleagues around the globe. This year marks an exciting chapter for global logistics, filled with opportunities for growth, innovation, and collaboration. This month, we reflect on the importance of preparation and resilience in navigating this critical period. Together, let us embrace the challenges and possibilities ahead, ensuring a prosperous and successful year for all. Happy New Year!

Market Trends

• The global economy growth has been resilient in 2024 and is set to grow by approximately 2.8% in 2025 (Maersk Strategic Insights), reflecting a rebound from earlier inflation-driven slow downs. However, geopolitical risks are expected to remain a shaping force, including regional wars, trade tensions between China and the West, higher tariffs, sanctions and export controls.

• In the U.S. goods consumption is up 3.2% y/y early in Q4, continuing its position as a leader among developed markets. This growth is supported by strong consumer spending and consumer confidence, though the effects of high interest rates are expected to moderate expansion in certain sectors.

• Europe is expected to achieve modest growth in 2025, driven by rising real wages and an easing of monetary policy. Both consumption and manufacturing remain subdued, and the outlook is bleak.

• The Asia-Pacific economy is set to remain a crucial driver of global growth in 2025, with strong performances expected in several emerging markets alongside stabilizing conditions in major economies like China. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow by approximately 4.4% (Morgan Stanley), underpinned by robust domestic demand, improving labour markets, and the easing of pandemic-related disruptions in supply chains.

• Emerging markets such as India, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia are expected to be key contributors to regional growth, benefiting from increased foreign direct investment, industrial expansion, and the ongoing shift of manufacturing activities due to the “China+1” strategy (Maersk Blue Paper). Additionally, technological advancements and digital transformation efforts are expected to strengthen regional economies, providing new opportunities for innovation and trade. However, challenges such as rising energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and potential fluctuations in global trade demand could create headwinds, requiring governments and businesses to remain agile and forward-looking. (Morgan Stanley)

• China achieved 5% growth in 2024, reflecting a measured moderation from previous years as the country grapples with low domestic demand with a weak housing market, high savings rates and low consumer confidence. Production is the main driver of the economy. Domestic policies have added to overcapacity in manufacturing, leading to competitive pricing and a strong export push (Maersk Strategic Insights).

China’s push toward a more sustainable and innovation-driven economic model is expected to gain momentum, with increased investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and digital infrastructure. Additionally, initiatives to improve regional trade partnerships, such as those under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), are likely to reinforce China’s position as a vital node in global supply chains. While risks remain, including demographic challenges and rising global protectionism, China’s strategic focus on long-term stability and growth indicates a positive trajectory for its economic outlook. (Morgan Stanley)

Resources and tools to support you

Visit our “Insights” pages where we explore the latest trends in supply chain digitization, sustainability, growth, resilience, and integrated logistics.
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